Casting 8th Level Spells

[Budner]

True or false?: With 100 magery skill, chance of successfully casting an 8th level spell is 50%.

[Menkaure]

True or false?: With 100 magery skill, chance of successfully casting an 8th level spell is 50%.

I think its 54%, but that may just be me thinking incorrectly.

[Budner]

Thanks Menk.

I've found data about casting from scrolls, but not for casting without a scroll. I'm sure it's here somewhere but I can't lay my hands on it.

[Workdawg]

I took the formula from the wiki and applied it to the spreadsheet there to calculate actual magery values... I don't know if that formula is actually accurate or not... but hey.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... hNVE#gid=0

[Sadistik]

i tell you what it sure doesnt feel like 50% feels more like 20%

[Budner]

Thanks Workdawg.

I've noticed that when I cast EV, I will OFTEN fizz up to 6-8 times in a row. Assuming a 50% success rate, the odds of that many consecutive fizzes are very low. 6 fizzes in a row should be a 1 in 64 chance, 8 in a row should be 1 in 256.

So at least with EV it feels like less than a 50% rate.

[Abyz]

The same goes for rezzing.

[Elk Eater]

It's easier to remember when you fizzle something 6x in a row because all 6 failures happened right then. You probably don't notice when you succeed 6x in a row because when you cast an EV or Res you pretty much don't cast another one right away (or for a long while even!)

[[Uhh] Eo]

Thanks Workdawg.

I've noticed that when I cast EV, I will OFTEN fizz up to 6-8 times in a row. Assuming a 50% success rate, the odds of that many consecutive fizzes are very low. 6 fizzes in a row should be a 1 in 64 chance, 8 in a row should be 1 in 256.

So at least with EV it feels like less than a 50% rate.

8 fizzles in a row is 1 in 256 with a sample size of 8 casts - which doesn't match your conditions of casting EV's in a dungeon. 1 in 256 is your chance of fizzling all eight if you sit down and cast eight EV's and then stop.

So, if you fizzle eight times while you're in a dungeon, you've haven't defied 1 in 256 odds. You'd have to sit down, cast 8 EV's, fizzle them all, and then stop to defy 1:256.

It is dependant of your sample size. A 50% chance spell is a coin toss, so in a dungeon your maths should be more like "In 100 coin tosses, what is my probability of an 8 cast streak?" - and you should probably get a sense that the chances are probably going to be quite high.

This applies to dueling big time where a player can easily take 1000 swings in an hour - the sample size is huge and you should get some long streaks on a coin toss with that many swings.

That is in a perfect world though. I wonder what random number generator we use in UO / RunUO. Algorythms for that can get pretty intense.

[Menkaure]

Thanks Workdawg.

I've noticed that when I cast EV, I will OFTEN fizz up to 6-8 times in a row. Assuming a 50% success rate, the odds of that many consecutive fizzes are very low. 6 fizzes in a row should be a 1 in 64 chance, 8 in a row should be 1 in 256.

So at least with EV it feels like less than a 50% rate.

8 fizzles in a row is 1 in 256 with a sample size of 8 casts - which doesn't match your conditions of casting EV's in a dungeon. 1 in 256 is your chance of fizzling all eight if you sit down and cast eight EV's and then stop.

So, if you fizzle eight times while you're in a dungeon, you've haven't defied 1 in 256 odds. You'd have to sit down, cast 8 EV's, fizzle them all, and then stop to defy 1:256.

It is dependant of your sample size. A 50% chance spell is a coin toss, so in a dungeon your maths should be more like "In 100 coin tosses, what is my probability of an 8 cast streak?" - and you should probably get a sense that the chances are probably going to be quite high.

This applies to dueling big time where a player can easily take 1000 swings in an hour - the sample size is huge and you should get some long streaks on a coin toss with that many swings.

That is in a perfect world though. I wonder what random number generator we use in UO / RunUO. Algorythms for that can get pretty intense.

Good point about the dueling, how many of us have missed 8-10 times in a row? Or duel someone who hits 10 in a row. All the time, trust me I'm usually the miss 10 in a row guy.