UO Second Age

Posted: **Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:26 am**

There's a better way to calculate standings, in my opinion.

It all depends on what you want to figure out. If you want to figure out who the "best" is... i.e... if there was a tournament tomorrow, who would you bet on to win? Well then we should be looking at match winning percentage. But, due to sampling, small sample size, etc., we also need to regress.

I took Tourney Ranks board and deleted all names with less than 10 matches. This left me with about 200 names who are on the upper end of the tourney system. They have done a fair amount of tournaments, and have done fairly well.

The average winning percentage for these folks is 64%. So, this is the population mean we'll regress to. The easiest way to regress is to add some number of "average" results to someone's record. There is a way to calculate the "correct" number, but I don't have the data to do this so I'm just playing around. And in doing so, I think 25 matches is about the right amount.

So take a look at the top-ranked player right now, Spanky. Add 25 matches to his record, with him winning 64% of them (about 16.1 wins) and his match win percentage goes from 79.9% to 79.3%. In other words, with such a large sample of his matches, we have a good idea of what his true talent level is.

On the other hand, a player like El Jiggo has an 83% match win percentage, through only 12 matches. Odds are, he's gotten lucky. Add in the 25 "average" matches, and he drops to a winning percentage of 71%. This is our long-term estimate of his true skill.

Anyways, this is what I'd suggest for calculating rankings. Add 16.1 wins and 8.9 losses to everyone's record and calculate the match win% they'd then have. And then just order by that. If you did that right now, you'd see this:

Code: Select all

Adjusted Rank	Player	Actual W%	Adjusted W%
1	Drax	94%	89%
2	The Murderer Dexter Morgan [BLU]	90%	89%
3	Choppa X	87%	85%
4	Sandro	85%	84%
5	ChoppamanX	94%	82%
6	The Kind Spanky [+ -]	80%	79%
7	Elhaym	82%	79%
8	The Murderer Clyde [-4-]	86%	78%
9	The Scoundrel Demon Arkanis	86%	77%
10	The Murderer Jordan Moffitt [-4-]	79%	76%
11	Crab Juice	79%	76%
12	The Murderer Choppa X [- +]	82%	75%
13	The Unsavory corr [DWD]	84%	75%
14	omg its bigcheez [TW]	81%	75%
15	Kyndrith	78%	74%
16	Tj [-3-]	76%	74%
17	The Great Aristides [-3-]	83%	74%
18	The Murderer RoofieTuesdays- [+ -]	83%	73%
19	The Murderer Lord Deacon, Grandmaster Scholar [-4-]	74%	73%
20	The Murderer Wylan [ACE]	75%	72%
21	The Murderer WoozyRargar [mYm]	74%	72%
22	The Disreputable King Of Ascalon [A-V]	75%	72%
23	The Murderer Jeebs [iD]	74%	72%
24	The Murderer MARKLOLKTHXBYE [mYm]	82%	72%
25	Untouchable	80%	71%
26	Hatter	80%	71%
27	The Murderer i-	78%	71%
28	The Murderer SmithandWesson [MHK]	75%	71%
29	The Great Arcanus [GsG]	74%	71%
30	The Honest Fruit Loops [><>]	72%	71%
31	The Murderer El Jiggo [mYm]	83%	71%
32	The Murderer Ironfist Max [-4-]	72%	70%
33	Omniinmo	79%	69%
34	The Murderer thounds thooper [TLC]	79%	69%
35	The Murderer Terror	73%	69%
36	James K Polk	70%	69%
37	The Murderer The White Mantle [MHK]	70%	69%
38	The Scoundrel Sweet Tooth	69%	68%
39	The Kind Jeru	71%	68%
40	The Murderer Jenova [mYm]	70%	68%
41	The Good Tweedle Dum [ACE]	73%	68%
42	Andy [A-V]	69%	68%
43	The Murderer MonkWithASword [ACE]	72%	68%
44	The Murderer pandas are gay	72%	68%
45	The Upstanding Topcock [None]	71%	68%
46	Hiro Protagonist	68%	67%
47	The Proper Jabu-Jabu [+ -]	70%	67%
48	The Murderer superXcontra [KwS]	70%	67%
49	The Murderer Little Dirty	68%	67%
50	The Murderer Legendary Wizard [pCp]	68%	66%
51	The Murderer HI IM MIKE [mYm]	68%	66%
52	The Illustrious Goober Pyle, Grandmaster Healer	66%	66%
53	Guerrilla	66%	66%
54	The Murderer Sir PimpAlot [MHK]	67%	66%
55	Erik	66%	66%
56	The Good Jack	67%	66%
57	The Prominent Fortune Favors [DF9]	67%	66%
58	The Scoundrel dex is no skill [0MG]	67%	66%
59	Grim	66%	66%
60	Faust	66%	66%
61	The Good ochocinco [P/C]	66%	66%
62	Xero	66%	66%
63	The Murderer youre bad [+ -]	67%	65%
64	The Good Octopuss Butthol [DWD]	66%	65%
65	The Rude Deuce	66%	65%
66	Marcus	67%	65%
67	The Good Chad [None]	67%	65%
68	The Unsavory Terminus [A-V]	67%	65%
69	Ibanez	65%	65%
70	The Famed Helo [UoH]	65%	65%
71	Shargass	64%	64%
72	The Murderer bil bob [pCp]	64%	64%
73	Mazer	64%	64%
74	The Scoundrel Haart	64%	64%
75	The Murderer Coup De Grace	64%	64%
76	rj	64%	64%
77	The Commendable BickfodShmeckler [FCP]	64%	64%
78	Sweet Dreams	63%	64%
79	The Scoundrel BeatingU [-3-]	64%	64%
80	Legendary Wizard	63%	64%
81	The Murderer Shuriken [CfH]	63%	63%
82	The Trustworthy Matthew	63%	63%
83	The Murderer Gimp Melee [ACE]	62%	63%
84	The Murderer ACHILLES	62%	63%
85	Jaster	60%	63%
86	The Prominent Jigg'Phinx [Zsv]	62%	63%
87	The Murderer LuckyGold	61%	63%
88	The Murderer Hypnotize Minds [TRI]	62%	63%
89	wut happen	60%	62%
90	Silex	59%	62%
91	The Admirable Pascal [UOG]	59%	62%
92	BadBrad	61%	62%
93	The Murderer GANDALF YO [mYm]	60%	62%
94	The Murderer grimey	57%	62%
95	The Murderer Faceman	57%	62%
96	Robbo the Hood	57%	62%
97	The Murderer Mr Bojangles	57%	62%
98	The Honorable Cindrew [TW]	61%	62%
99	The Illustrious Cobalt, Grandmaster Cartographer [UoH]	59%	62%
100	The Murderer Minax [K0P]	59%	61%
101	The Murderer Kheran [ACE]	58%	61%
102	The Murderer Spooty, Grandmaster Scholar [CoO]	55%	61%
103	The Murderer Throne	61%	61%
104	The Murderer Pallando [K^A]	59%	61%
105	The Commendable Rey Mysterio [None]	59%	61%
106	Blaine Kross	57%	61%
107	Zylo	59%	61%
108	The Honest Prospero [-3-]	56%	61%
109	Milo	57%	61%
110	The Murderer Harry Callahan [MHK]	57%	61%
111	The Murderer Hiroshi Uchiha [mYm]	57%	61%
112	The Murderer Harlequin [CfH]	50%	60%
113	The Scoundrel Fwerp [mYm]	59%	60%
114	The Murderer Laertides	58%	60%
115	The Murderer Allah bin Laden [MHK]	59%	60%
116	The Unsavory Notorious B.I.G [P/C]	58%	60%
117	Slade	56%	60%
118	The Scoundrel Alatar [None]	56%	60%
119	WEEZYS DO BOY	56%	60%
120	Jamison	55%	60%
121	PHOENIX MARIE	50%	60%
122	The Murderer BAD COP	50%	60%
123	Matron de Winter	58%	60%
124	The Unsavory Flea [DF9]	57%	60%
125	Mukas	56%	60%
126	The Murderer Bmasta, Grandmaster Scholar [ACE]	55%	59%
127	The Murderer Michael	54%	59%
128	MiG	53%	59%
129	The Notable DarkSoul [K^K]	56%	59%
130	The Murderer Time	54%	59%
131	Pwnagizer Bunny	55%	59%
132	The Murderer An Lor Xen	50%	59%
133	The Murderer Lettuce [MHK]	58%	59%
134	The Murderer Disastro [MHK]	57%	59%
135	Broke Condom	57%	58%
136	The Murderer Insolence	46%	58%
137	The Admirable mark [BLU]	46%	58%
138	The Murderer Lettuce [MHK]	55%	58%
139	ReDRuM	55%	58%
140	The Murderer Carnous	50%	58%
141	The Great Odin [UoH]	47%	58%
142	The Murderer meat [DiE]	55%	58%
143	The Unsavory SkOnZy [NoS]	55%	58%
144	Snake Eyes	55%	58%
145	GOOD COP	53%	58%
146	The Murderer Luigi	55%	57%
147	The Murderer Sivrik Le'Kross [-3-]	55%	57%
148	Flash Hardstar	47%	57%
149	The Murderer Loathed [mYm]	47%	57%
150	The Kind Etumen [-E-]	50%	57%
151	The Murderer CmaN	50%	57%
152	The Murderer TTStoner GL [ACE]	54%	57%
153	The Murderer Corpse Dropper [!!!]	54%	57%
154	Pascal	48%	57%
155	The Malicious Bruce Lee [H0T]	53%	57%
156	Moriarty	48%	56%
157	The Upstanding Darph Nader [PEE]	48%	56%
158	Solbelum	44%	56%
159	The Murderer hi im mike [mYm]	52%	56%
160	The Murderer Sui Juris	51%	56%
161	Hemperor [CAN]	55%	55%
162	The Glorious Lord Ishamael, Grandmaster Mage [P/C]	53%	55%
163	The Good bOmb [DiE]	50%	55%
164	The Honorable Anthrax	53%	55%
165	Godfather	46%	55%
166	Thor	42%	55%
167	The Murderer Hernando Kortez [-3-]	49%	55%
168	Thug Life	47%	55%
169	The Murderer Vanette [TRI]	51%	55%
170	The Famed Rias [KW$]	53%	54%
171	The Noble Martin X, Grandmaster Assassin [B/S]	49%	54%
172	The Murderer Mr.Boombastic	48%	54%
173	The Murderer Zsinj Sorasto	50%	54%
174	Malice	51%	54%
175	Mongoose	48%	53%
176	The Murderer Adonis Infestus [mYm]	48%	53%
177	White Knight	43%	53%
178	Apok	47%	53%
179	The Murderer Verchiel [mYm]	47%	53%
180	The Glorious Anthony, Grandmaster Mage	49%	53%
181	Azisza Soultaker	45%	52%
182	The Rude BIGGESTHAXPOSSI [FCP]	47%	52%
183	Craven Centuries	45%	51%
184	The Murderer GoodPizza	36%	51%
185	The Murderer Yomega	48%	51%
186	The Murderer Mung	43%	51%
187	The Fair Syntax [TW]	48%	51%
188	The Murderer Mr.T [UOG]	46%	51%
189	The Scoundrel Kylock [DWD]	46%	51%
190	Brother Xavior	43%	50%
191	The Murderer Meat Wad [CoO]	45%	50%
192	Roger	47%	50%
193	The Malicious Coma	45%	50%
194	Bigoud	41%	49%
195	The Murderer HardCore [PEE]	37%	49%
196	The Murderer Renegade	40%	49%
197	The Honest Shiggidy [CfH]	40%	45%

Posted: **Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:32 am**

8 of cr3w in that top 20 re-write list

all you need to do is enable the option to rank by % win

you don't really need to add fake win/losses..

Posted: **Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:54 am**

lol my carto is #99 owned

Posted: **Thu Oct 28, 2010 4:03 pm**

Sandro wrote:8 of cr3w in that top 20 re-write list

all you need to do is enable the option to rank by % win

you don't really need to add fake win/losses..

mikel's point of adding fake wins/losses is that it weeds out the people who have particpated in very few tournaments, and lucked out with a very high win % - it basically has no effect on the top ranked players.

imo magics/non magics should be seperated, "drax" is #1 on that list but would not really stand a chance in the non magics/pots/poisons tourn.

Posted: **Thu Oct 28, 2010 4:34 pm**

Well, it doesn't weed them out, it just accounts for our uncertainty about their true skill.

For people that have been in 10+ matches, and let's say they're 2 wins and 8 losses, adding the average matches will actually raise our estimate of their long-term winning percentage.

Posted: **Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:06 pm**

Mikel123 wrote:Well, it doesn't weed them out, it just accounts for our uncertainty about their true skill.

For people that have been in 10+ matches, and let's say they're 2 wins and 8 losses, adding the average matches will actually raise our estimate of their long-term winning percentage.

yea just meant you cant do something like luck out a few tourns and end up top of the ladder cuz u have 100% win ratio.. i think choppa's dexer was at 100% for a while, had he logged out then and never played it he'd be unbeatable

Posted: **Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:24 pm**

mikel would you mind doing the same adjustment to the 2v2 ladder?

curious to see how that plays out

Posted: **Thu Oct 28, 2010 8:49 pm**

I cut off everyone with less than 5 matches, since that got me about the top 200 again. Win% was 65% for this group, so that's what I regressed to. I chose 25 matches again, but I'm not sure that's as good for this data set. But, the results look pretty reasonable to me.

Code: Select all

Rank	Player	W%	AdjW%
1	The Murderer Dexter Morgan [BLU]	90%	88%
2	Sandro	89%	86%
3	The Murderer hi im mike [mYm]	89%	83%
4	The Murderer Jordan Moffitt [-4-]	87%	82%
5	The Murderer WoozyRargar [mYm]	83%	79%
6	The Kind Spanky [+ -]	78%	77%
7	The Murderer Legendary Wizard [pCp]	84%	76%
8	The Murderer Spooty, Grandmaster Scholar [CoO]	100%	76%
9	WEEZYS DO BOY	83%	75%
10	Choppa X	77%	74%
11	The Murderer pandas are gay	82%	74%
12	The Murderer Lord Deacon, Grandmaster Scholar [-4-]	77%	74%
13	The Murderer Itachi Uchiha	88%	74%
14	The Fair Ralina [+ -]	100%	74%
15	The Honest Fruit Loops [><>]	76%	73%
16	Tj [-3-]	81%	72%
17	Shargass	90%	72%
18	thounds thooper	100%	72%
19	The Murderer The Hated [ACE]	100%	72%
20	The Murderer Beaker	100%	72%
21	Driz'itz	100%	72%
22	The Murderer thounds thooper [TLC]	100%	72%
23	The Murderer Wylan [ACE]	80%	72%
24	The Murderer Hypnotize Minds [TRI]	76%	72%
25	The Murderer Luigi	75%	71%
26	Untouchable	81%	71%
27	The Murderer James	89%	71%
28	Legendary Wizard	73%	71%
29	The Honorable Cindrew [TW]	74%	71%
30	The Murderer XandeR CreWs [MHK]	77%	71%
31	Mazer II	88%	71%
32	James K Polk	73%	70%
33	Mazer	74%	70%
34	The Disreputable King Of Ascalon [A-V]	78%	70%
35	Sirhan	82%	70%
36	The Scoundrel BeatingU [-3-]	73%	70%
37	The Murderer MARKLOLKTHXBYE [mYm]	79%	70%
38	Guerrilla-Reborn	74%	70%
39	The Murderer HI IM MIKE [mYm]	76%	70%
40	omg its bigcheez [TW]	86%	70%
41	Black	86%	70%
42	The Murderer Spec Boogie [KwS]	80%	69%
43	The Scoundrel Fwerp [mYm]	70%	69%
44	The Murderer Hernando Kortez [-3-]	75%	69%
45	Mario	75%	69%
46	The Murderer Lettuce [MHK]	73%	69%
47	The Unsavory Redemption [None]	83%	69%
48	The Great Arcanus [GsG]	72%	69%
49	The Murderer Vanette [TRI]	69%	68%
50	wut happen	73%	68%
51	Jamison	73%	68%
52	The Unsavory Sup Fresh	73%	68%
53	Mr Don [A-V]	72%	68%
54	The Rude Abraham Lincoln [None]	71%	68%
55	Guerrilla	68%	68%
56	The Scoundrel Sweet Tooth	70%	68%
57	Xero	70%	68%
58	Hybrid Tron	80%	68%
59	Lucky Charms	80%	68%
60	Ronald Reagan	75%	67%
61	The Murderer Orion James	75%	67%
62	The Murderer Little Dirty	68%	67%
63	Vlastslav	71%	67%
64	The Murderer Laertides	71%	67%
65	The Murderer Jenova [mYm]	70%	67%
66	The Murderer Ironfist Max [-4-]	68%	67%
67	The Murderer superXcontra [KwS]	68%	67%
68	The Fair platypus-C	69%	67%
69	Moriarty	70%	66%
70	Soma	71%	66%
71	The Murderer Clyde [-4-]	71%	66%
72	The Murderer GANDALF YO [mYm]	67%	66%
73	The Good Octopuss Butthol [DWD]	67%	66%
74	The Good Chad [None]	67%	66%
75	Andy [A-V]	67%	66%
76	The Fair Monaxe [WCK]	67%	66%
77	The Murderer spike	66%	66%
78	Eric	67%	66%
79	The Murderer Dymore ["!"]	67%	66%
80	The Glorious Dre, Grandmaster Scholar	67%	66%
81	Silex	67%	66%
82	The Trustworthy Matthew	67%	65%
83	The Great Odin [UoH]	67%	65%
84	The Murderer meat [DiE]	67%	65%
85	The Murderer Terror	66%	65%
86	The Kind LuckyLite [Fag]	65%	65%
87	The Murderer Shuriken [CfH]	65%	65%
88	KG	64%	65%
89	Avernus	64%	65%
90	The Dope Dealer	63%	64%
91	Dread Lord XII	63%	64%
92	The Scoundrel Kylock [DWD]	64%	64%
93	The Murderer Mr.T [UOG]	63%	64%
94	The Unsavory Terminus [A-V]	60%	64%
95	The Murderer Bmasta, Grandmaster Scholar [ACE]	60%	64%
96	The Famed Ajax	60%	64%
97	GoldteeF	60%	64%
98	Stratocaster	60%	64%
99	The Murderer Mr.Boombastic	64%	64%
100	The Unsavory Titus	63%	64%
101	Grim	63%	64%
102	Zylo	63%	64%
103	The Rude Deuce	62%	64%
104	The Murderer Hiroshi Uchiha [mYm]	62%	64%
105	e m u f a c e	60%	64%
106	Emperor Pythion	60%	64%
107	The Famed Opitimus [GG]	61%	63%
108	Taboo	57%	63%
109	Arsenic	57%	63%
110	Homie	57%	63%
111	The Murderer BRAVE ADVENTURER	57%	63%
112	White Knight	57%	63%
113	The Murderer Zsinj Sorasto	57%	63%
114	The Murderer Insolence	57%	63%
115	The Murderer Gunter [CAN]	57%	63%
116	Galm Grimsson	57%	63%
117	The Unsavory corr [DWD]	62%	63%
118	The Prominent Fortune Favors [DF9]	62%	63%
119	The Murderer Lettuce [MHK]	63%	63%
120	The Murderer Time	58%	63%
121	The Fair Syntax [TW]	62%	63%
122	The Good ochocinco [P/C]	62%	63%
123	The Murderer Jeebs [iD]	56%	63%
124	The Murderer Capernicus	56%	63%
125	Elhaym	59%	63%
126	The Proper Jabu-Jabu [+ -]	59%	63%
127	The Murderer Corpse Dropper [!!!]	60%	63%
128	The Murderer TTStoner GL [ACE]	60%	63%
129	rj	62%	62%
130	The Notable DarkSoul [K^K]	60%	62%
131	Norval	50%	62%
132	Nashringa Duatha	50%	62%
133	Sin	50%	62%
134	Jaster	50%	62%
135	Solbelum	50%	62%
136	Hiro Protagonist	59%	62%
137	The Murderer Allah bin Laden [MHK]	59%	62%
138	The Scoundrel Kooter [pCp]	60%	62%
139	Kyndrith	56%	62%
140	The Murderer xTYRANTx [None]	56%	62%
141	Faust	59%	62%
142	The Honorable Anthrax	60%	62%
143	Ibanez	57%	61%
144	The Murderer Prison Slut [DWD]	57%	61%
145	Crab Juice	50%	61%
146	Mukas	50%	61%
147	chumbucket [cA]	54%	61%
148	The Glorious Anthony, Grandmaster Mage	56%	61%
149	Gandalf	40%	61%
150	The Murderer Ronald McDonald	40%	61%
151	The Murderer Throne	58%	61%
152	jack mama	50%	61%
153	Robbo the Hood	50%	61%
154	The Murderer LuckyGold	58%	61%
155	The Good Jack	53%	61%
156	The Murderer Disastro [MHK]	60%	61%
157	The Murderer Meat Wad [CoO]	57%	60%
158	The Murderer Harlequin [CfH]	43%	60%
159	Southern	43%	60%
160	RoxXteDdy	43%	60%
161	The Murderer An Lor Xen	43%	60%
162	The Scoundrel dex is no skill [0MG]	50%	60%
163	The Murderer Nicholas [>M<]	55%	60%
164	Mongoose	55%	60%
165	The Murderer Scarby Jones [MHK]	57%	60%
166	The Murderer Pallando [K^A]	50%	60%
167	The Unsavory Isuldur [TG]	44%	60%
168	Thug Life	44%	60%
169	Brother Xavior	44%	60%
170	James McDeagan [None]	44%	60%
171	The Honest Shiggidy [CfH]	54%	59%
172	Azisza Soultaker	50%	59%
173	The Murderer Sivrik Le'Kross [-3-]	53%	59%
174	Craven Centuries	46%	59%
175	The Murderer Bad Company	38%	58%
176	The Murderer Whats The [None]	47%	58%
177	The Kind Etumen [-E-]	40%	58%
178	Tagarr	40%	58%
179	The Murderer GoodPizza	42%	57%
180	The Glorious Lord Ishamael, Grandmaster Mage [P/C]	53%	57%
181	The Murderer Disastro [MHK]	55%	57%
182	The Rude Snowman [MHK]	50%	57%
183	The Malicious Coma	43%	57%
184	a Red Eminem	29%	57%
185	Hemperor [CAN]	55%	57%
186	Hydrogen Cyanide	48%	57%
187	Godfather	44%	56%
188	The Murderer Renegade	44%	56%
189	The Murderer BlackMamba	45%	56%
190	The Murderer Yomega	52%	56%
191	The Commendable Eulogy [None]	48%	56%
192	Danath	25%	55%
193	Broke Condom	52%	54%
194	The Murderer TrimReaper [MHK]	48%	54%
195	Roger	51%	54%
196	Gfunke	46%	54%
197	The Murderer Azazel [MHK]	43%	53%
198	Malice	47%	53%
199	The Murderer Johnny Hobo [FT$]	49%	53%
200	The Famed Rias [KW$]	50%	52%
201	The Murderer TTStoner M-N [ACE]	47%	52%
202	The Trustworthy Dash [. .]	32%	51%
203	The Murderer Dead On Arrival	42%	50%
204	The Good GHOSTFACE KILLAH [WCK]	41%	45%
205	The Murderer Pancakes	34%	43%

Posted: **Fri Oct 29, 2010 3:37 pm**

Damn that's pretty legit..while you're at it can you convince derrick to make the 1v1 on thursday start 30 mins later..I literally miss every one of them by * few minutes because of when I get home from work..I've joined 2 in the last 5 months

Posted: **Thu Nov 04, 2010 6:41 am**

all you would really need to do here is add a variable for if <player> last tournament is <this many days ago>, hide them on the tourney board until they participate again

UO Second Age

4v4 MyUosa standings

Re: 4v4 MyUosa standings

Re: 4v4 MyUosa standings

Re: 4v4 MyUosa standings

Re: 4v4 MyUosa standings

Re: 4v4 MyUosa standings

Re: 4v4 MyUosa standings

Re: 4v4 MyUosa standings

Re: 4v4 MyUosa standings

Re: 4v4 MyUosa standings

Re: 4v4 MyUosa standings