Fishing Statistics

[Zane]

Due to numerous threads regarding the rate in which sea serpents are fished as well as skill gain at higher skill levels, I've decided to record the statistics of my latest fisherman's journey to GM.

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For skill levels between 90-99.9 as of 12/30/09
Skill Gain: .0013 per cast
Success: .9656 per cast
Fish: .9387 per cast, .9722 per success
Footwear: .0151 per cast, .0156 per success
Mess of Small Fish: .0086 per cast, .0089 per success
Treasure Maps: .0032, .0033 per success
Sea Serpent: .0022 per cast, .0625 per failure
Deep Sea Serpent: none recorded
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Data gathering: All casts and outcomes recorded with the exception of no fish biting in the area results:
skill at start/skill at finish
fish, footwear, mess of small fish, treasure maps, sea serpents, deep sea serpents, failure
All results are added for total number of casts; sea serpents and failures added for total number of failures. All other categories treated as successes.

For those wishing to contribute, I can post my macro, but it is very basic. I bookended my macro with the character saying "begin" and "end" so that I could record the numbers from my journal. Because the journal does not hold the never-ending stream of data, I recorded after every twenty attempts to cast. Only deep sea fishing should be recorded.

I expect most data that will be gathered will be for characters about the 90 skill skill level because anything less can be gained from shore, however I will document any skill level numbers provided if they are gathered while deep sea fishing.

Summary: 12/27/09 At this time, the reasons for lack of skill gain and sea serpent results appears to be due to the lack of failures at this skill level. To make any changes we would need to know OSI's intended rates Unfortunately, this is still a very small statistical sample that does not provide any conclusive results. 12/31/09 Have some tmap statistics now to add to the discussion (while these seem to be about what is expected, their inclusion at least shows the sample is becoming more accurate for what to expect). Lag in skill gain and sea serpents still seems to be from the lack of failures in fishing. At this point, it may be beneficial to answer three question. 1.) What are the expected rates of failure at high skill level in fishing? 2.) What are the expected rates of pulling a sea serpent upon fishing failure. 3.) Are these rates open to adjustment?


[Will update as more data is gathered.]

[Zane]

Data

Totals for 12/27/09
skill gain: .7 (94.7-95.4)
fish: 382 footwear: 9 mess of small fish: 4 treasure maps: 0
sea serpents: 1 deep sea serpents: 0 failure: 10 total casts: 406

Totals for 12/30/2009
skill gain: .5 (95.4-95.9)
fish: 491 footwear: 5 mess of small fish: 4 treasure maps: 3
sea serpents: 1 deep sea serpents: 0 failure: 20 total casts: 524

[Zane]

Updated with additional data.

[Dagon]

Because the journal does not hold the never-ending stream of data

off topic, but yeah it does..

[Zane]

Because the journal does not hold the never-ending stream of data

off topic, but yeah it does..

LOL. Even if it did, I'm not sure I'd want to count through that much data at once. It's easier to just start a run, do some stuff, come back to add up, and rinse/repeat.

It does seem like I lose things at some point unless they're in another spot I don't know about.

[DarkWing]

so we are not getting enough Failures at fishing then?

[Zane]

so we are not getting enough Failures at fishing then?

If the goal is to increase the number either sea serpent encounters or skill gain, then yes. For non-GM fishermen in the 90s skill range, there are very few failures. If it is a straight skill level determines success percentages, we're running a little on the high side (by about a percentage point). If this is not the case, it would be beneficial to know what our success rates should be (in other words the formula).

Without going back and looking for the info, I remember sea serpents have a chance of being fished up on failure. If that is the case, then the lack of skill gain and sea serpents is due to lack of failures.


My suggestion would be this (as long as it's allowable within the goal of era accuracy):
Increase failure rate while decreasing the rate of skill gain.

I understand the intention of keeping skill gain minimal at this level (it really is smooth sailing at GM). However, by increasing failure rate we can increase the number of sea serpents "fished" up, but will need to decrease the skill gain rate to compensate for the additional chances of skill gain it brings.